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Out of the race: Pain, Dead Cap, Music City, Mavericks.
Sked = The Gauntlet's rank of the schedule left (1 = hardest). Odds are an estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Boom! Week 10 is here, and the league's top two clubs are trying to keep the postseason fight from getting messy.
the live scoreboard is where you'll track every one of these games as they happen.
Money is nice, but championships are better, and this week separates the contenders from the pretenders. Check the standings to see how much every win matters right now.
Da Dangsters 9-3 
The Dream 8-4 Game of the Week, and it is a big one: Da Dangsters (9-3) host Running down the Dream (8-4) in a battle of two of the best teams in the league.
Da Dangsters are riding a four-game winning streak, and a win here pushes their playoff odds to 100%, per the simulation.
Running down the Dream lead the all-time series 7-6, and they won the closest game in the rivalry's history, a 134.35-124.13 thriller back in 2019.
The swing player is QB Cam Ward, who projects 22.4 points for Running down the Dream, and TE Trey McBride, who projects 19.2 for Da Dangsters.
The key NFL game is SFO at DAL, with QB Brock Purdy and RB Christian McCaffrey on one side and WR CeeDee Lamb on the other.
My pick: Running down the Dream, 131-129, in a game that will be decided by one lineup decision late on Sunday.
57.2 projected points from these two lineups.
Dangsters: >99% with a win, 97% with a loss. The Dream: 98% with a win, 91% with a loss.
Mariachi Ninjas 5-7 
Gridiron Geeks 10-2 Gridiron Geeks (10-2) are on a five-game winning streak and have a bye chase of their own, about 48% likely right now.
The Mariachi Ninjas (5-7) are long shots, but RB James Cook projects 16.8 for them, and the Buffalo Bills defense projects 9.1.
The key NFL game is BUF at NYJ.
My pick: Gridiron Geeks, 121-96, and the Geeks keep the bye hunt alive.
33.9 projected points from these two lineups.
Ninjas: 0% with a win, 0% with a loss. Geeks: 52% with a win, 33% with a loss.
Vitside 11-1 
Fire Ready 5-7 Vitside Mafia (11-1) are on a seven-game winning streak and chasing a first-round bye, which sits about 46% likely right now.
Fire Ready Aim (5-7) have lost five straight and are long shots, so this is a must-win for them only in pride.
QB Josh Allen projects 30.6 for Vitside Mafia, the biggest single number on either roster.
The key NFL game is CAR at NOS, where QB Tyler Shough of Fire Ready Aim projects 26.5 points.
My pick: Vitside Mafia, 141-118, and the bye chase keeps rolling.
49.5 projected points from these two lineups.
Vitside: 51% with a win, 33% with a loss. Fire: 0% with a win, 0% with a loss.
Computer Jocks 6-6 
Wascawy Wabbits 9-3 Computer Jocks (6-6) have won four straight meetings with Wascawy Wabbits (9-3), even though the all-time series is dead even at 5-5.
The Jocks are on a one-game winning streak and need a win to meaningfully push their playoff odds from 15%.
QB Trevor Lawrence projects 24.5 for Wascawy Wabbits, and the key NFL game is JAC at TEN.
My pick: Wascawy Wabbits, 126-109, because the Wabbits should be too much for a Jocks team still trying to find its footing.
39.4 projected points from these two lineups.
CPU Jocks: 23% with a win, 8% with a loss. Wabbits: >99% with a win, 93% with a loss.
Pigskins 9-3 
Dark Magicians 4-8 Pacific Pigskins (9-3) are on a two-game skid and face Dark Magicians of Chaos (4-8), who have dropped five straight.
The Pigskins need this one badly, and a win moves their playoff odds from 89% to about 95%.
QB Jared Goff projects 27.8 for Pacific Pigskins, but QB Dak Prescott (27.6) and QB Jayden Daniels (25.9) give the Magicians plenty of firepower.
My pick: Pacific Pigskins, 118-112, because Goff and the Pigskins cannot afford another slip.
42.6 projected points from these two lineups.
Pigskins: 95% with a win, 84% with a loss. Magicians: 1% with a win, 0% with a loss.
Bring The Pain 2-10 
Midwestside 6-6 Bring The Pain (2-10) are on a seven-game losing streak against Midwestside Connection (6-6), who are riding a two-game winning streak.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs projects 17.4 for Bring The Pain and is their best bet to snap the skid.
My pick: Midwestside Connection, 101-98, in a tight one.
34.8 projected points from these two lineups.
Pain: <1% with a win, <1% with a loss. Midwest: 9% with a win, 2% with a loss.
Cowboy Up 7-5 
Music City 2-10 Cowboy Up (7-5) are on a three-game winning streak and face Music City Mafia (2-10), who have won the last two meetings.
QB Joe Burrow projects 30.4 for Cowboy Up, which is the biggest number on the roster.
My pick: Cowboy Up, 101-86, and they should be fine as long as Burrow stays healthy.
30.4 projected points from these two lineups.
Cowboy Up: 97% with a win, 91% with a loss. Music City: 0% with a win, 0% with a loss.
Mavericks 1-11 
Dead Cap 2-10 Maverick (1-11) face Dead Cap Walking (2-10) in a clash of the league's bottom dwellers, and this is their first meeting under the current owners.
QB Patrick Mahomes projects 26.7 for Maverick, which gives them the edge.
My pick: Maverick, 98-84, because even a bad season needs a win sometimes.
32.7 projected points from these two lineups.
First meeting under the current owners.
Watch SFO at DAL on Sunday for the Game of the Week swing, with QB Brock Purdy and RB Christian McCaffrey on one side and WR CeeDee Lamb on the other.
Also tune into BUF at NYJ and CAR at NOS, where QB Josh Allen and QB Tyler Shough hold the key roster spots.
Check the rivalry pages to see how these matchups have played out over the years, and track it all on the live scoreboard.
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